Brent Posts Its Steepest Weekly Fall Since 2020 as US-Iran Talks Stay Uncertain

Oil markets opened the week of 9 November lower, extending the steepest weekly decline in more than five years. Brent crude fell more than 16% over the week to Friday, 6 November, its largest weekly drop since April 2020. Early on Monday, Brent traded near $97.70 a barrel and WTI near $90.50. The fall reflects a shift in how traders price the conflict with Iran: the bet is now on a negotiated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz rather than on renewed military action.

What happened

Oil had spent weeks trading on supply fear. Tanker incidents in the Strait and a blockade of commercial traffic kept a large risk premium in prices. That premium began to unwind as signals from Washington turned more conciliatory. President Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely while talks made progress, and tied the outcome to whether a strong agreement is signed. Qatar has also proposed a plan to reopen the strait as part of ending the wider conflict.

The picture is not clean. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks were not productive and that Tehran's demands were unacceptable, which cuts against the more optimistic White House message. The strait itself remains closed to commercial traffic, and new incidents continue. Iranian claims that two tankers struck mines have not been confirmed by any maritime authority. Oil has therefore fallen on expectations rather than on any change in physical flows.

Gold, which rallied to its best week since August in early November as yields eased and the dollar softened, is a useful contrast. Metals are gaining from calmer rate expectations, while crude is trading on the diplomacy headlines.

Why it matters for traders

• Headline risk is the main driver. Crude can swing several dollars on a single statement, so stop levels set on normal volatility may be hit quickly.
• The premium can come back. If talks stall or a tanker incident is confirmed, prices could rebound sharply from current levels.
• Import-heavy economies gain from lower crude. India and Pakistan benefit from a softer oil bill, which helps their currencies and inflation outlook.
• Energy and airline stocks react in opposite directions. Pairing them can help express a view on the diplomacy outcome.

What to watch

Watch for a signed framework on the Strait of Hormuz, any official confirmation of shipping resuming, and a clear response from Iran to the latest US position. Inflation data from the US this week will also shape how far oil's decline feeds into rate expectations. A confirmed reopening would likely push Brent lower; a collapse in talks would likely reverse much of the weekly drop.

Educational content, not investment advice. Practise trading geopolitical oil moves risk-free in the Trading Titans paper trading app.