Markets Price About a 70% Chance of a Fed Rate Hike in December

The Fed Is Still Expected to Tighten

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets priced a 69-74% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2026. The Fed meets on 8-9 December.

Why a hike is still on the table

Oil has been high for months, and its effect on inflation takes time to fade. One day's fall in crude does not change the Fed's picture overnight.

What could change the odds

• The October jobs report, due this week.
• Inflation data before the December meeting.
• Oil: if prices keep falling, hike bets could shrink.

Why it matters globally

A Fed hike usually strengthens the dollar, which puts pressure on emerging-market currencies such as the rupee and on dollar-priced assets like gold and Bitcoin.

Educational content, not investment advice.