Federal Reserve Anchors Rates at 3.75%–4.00%: December Rate Hike Probabilities Climb

FOMC Rate Policy Horizon

Following its late-October gathering, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%, reiterating that policy decisions will remain strictly data-dependent.

What Markets Are Pricing

• No November Meeting: The next official policy announcement is scheduled for December 8–9, 2026.
• Rate Probabilities: CME FedWatch futures data indicates a 72% probability of a 25 bps rate hike in December should core PCE inflation remain above 2.8%.
• Quantitative Tightening (QT): The Fed continues its systematic balance sheet runoff at an orderly pace of $60 billion monthly.