US Midterm Elections Day: What History Says About November for Stocks

Midterms and the Market

The US midterm elections are on Tuesday, 3 November 2026, and markets were cautious going in.

What history suggests

According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, November has historically been the Nasdaq's strongest month in midterm years, with an average gain of about 3.5%. One explanation: uncertainty fades once the result is known, whichever party wins.

Why this year may be bumpier

• Results may not be final on election night, so headline swings could last several days.
• Investors are already nervous about AI spending and a possible Fed rate hike.
• The October jobs report lands later this week.

A word on seasonality

Averages hide wide ranges. Seasonal patterns are a starting point for a plan, not a reason to trade on their own.

Educational content, not investment advice.