VanEck Outlines Long-Term $500,000 Bitcoin Valuation Model Based on Gold Parity

Institutional Research Points to Long-Term Monetary Store-of-Value Thesis

Global asset manager VanEck released an updated long-range valuation framework projecting that Bitcoin could target $500,000 between 2030 and 2035 by capturing half of gold's global monetary store-of-value market capitalization.

The report arrived at a pivotal moment for digital asset investors, contrasting short-term ETF flow volatility with multi-year structural adoption by corporate treasuries and sovereign wealth funds.

Core Pillars of the Institutional Thesis

• Monetary Debasement Hedge: Rising G7 sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios and structural fiscal deficits continue to drive institutional interest in scarce, non-sovereign reserve assets.
• Post-Halving Supply Dynamics: With Bitcoin's annual programmatic issuance locked below gold's mining inflation rate, long-term holder supply remains near record highs.
• Regulated Custody Infrastructure: The maturation of spot ETFs and institutional custody rails across New York, London, Hong Kong, and Zurich has permanently expanded Bitcoin's addressable institutional capital pool.